Every Leader Thinks They'll See The Crisis Coming...
The Wargame
Every leader thinks they'll see the crisis coming...
Almost none do…
Of the few that do think they’re ready...
Almost none are!
I’ve just listened again to the five-part series The Wargame, and it’s one of the most confronting leadership case studies with the highest stakes I’ve heard.
For me, it’s not about politics it’s about psychology, systems, and the human limits of foresight.
It’s uncomfortably real.
As a leader, it will unnerve you and it should.
It invites real-life former ministers, military chiefs, and experts to figure out how to defend a country under attack.
As a compelling exploration of leadership under pressure, it made me ask:
Are we ignoring weak signals because they’re inconvenient?
Dismissing scenarios that challenge short-term priorities?
Assuming tomorrow’s risks will arrive slowly, not all at once?
Across five gripping episodes, you hear capable, well-intentioned leaders become trapped by the very systems they created and the assumptions they inhabit.
Caught between competing priorities, previous poor insight, decisions, and delay, they debate and rationalise until the luxury of choice disappears and becomes stark
What The Wargame reveals and what it demands of leadership today:
Your personal interior (I)
Build the courage to look squarely at what you’d rather avoid.
How you relate (We)
Create cultures that reward foresight and resilience, not just efficiency.
What you do (IT)
Run your own “wargames”, stress-test your systems, culture and self, before reality does.
The environment & systems (ITS)
Collaborate across boundaries; systemic risks can’t be met alone.
Polarities leaders must hold
There are so many at play in this scenario, short-term and long-term, risk and security, control and trust.
Short term and long term
Invest early and you’ll be questioned.
Wait too long and you’ll be crushed by events.
The real skill is holding both: stewarding today’s resources while preparing for tomorrow’s uncertainty.
Leaders who can do that don’t just survive disruption; they’re trusted when it matters most.
Individual and collective
No leader or organisation is an island.
Work with your team, peers, suppliers, even competitors, to understand shared vulnerabilities.
Advocate for resilience and efficiency that strengthen the whole system, not just your part of it.
War and Peace
Perhaps the toughest polarity we live with today, swinging precariously from one pole to another.
This isn’t just for world leaders.
We all live versions of this.
It’s alive in us as individuals, as teams, organisations, and nations.
Life & Death
Recognising this polarity reminds us of what is ultimately at stake, and why developing ourselves as leaders matters, to help us all make better decisions.
This applies to corporate leaders not just world leaders. The way you create and deliver, your products and services, impact this as well as how you lead your teams.
Being Human
The Wargame reminds us that most crises aren’t single failures of intelligence, investment or imagination.
They’re multidimensional: mental & emotional (I), relational (We), behavioural (IT) systemic and environmental (ITS).
Our challenge is to imagine more courageously, prepare more collaboratively, and act more coherently before the moment of no return if we are all to flourish.
The lesson isn’t political; it’s profoundly human.
There’s so much richness in this series.
What did you take away from it?
What will you do differently from today?
And to our world leaders, please listen and reflect (a few already have!).
What will you do differently that will make our world better for all, not just your part of it?
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